Forecasting the limits of an organization's achievable growth on the basis of discriminant analysis
Bobkov A. L.1
1 Российский экономический университет им. Г.В. Плеханова
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Journal paper
Journal of Economics, Entrepreneurship and Law (РИНЦ, ВАК)
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Volume 15, Number 2 (February 2025)
Indexed in Russian Science Citation Index: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=80480034
Abstract:
The article discusses the author\'s approach to the application of discriminant analysis for forecasting the limits of achievable growth of an organization within the existing production structure. The main difference between the proposed approach and the previously developed method of statistical forecasting of the limits of achievable growth of an organization using key predictors of organizational transformation is, first of all, a reduction in the labor intensity of calculations to determine the limits of achievable growth of an organization while maintaining the existing production structure. The result of discriminant analysis is the construction of a discriminant function, which is a linear function of several variables (predictors) characterizing the results of economic activity of the organization under study. The calculated values of the discriminant function allow not only to assign the studied organization to the appropriate level of development with a high degree of probability, but also to assess the possibility of its further development within the existing production structure. The article describes the results of the construction of the discriminant function for construction organizations of the Russian Federation on the basis of the previously constructed model of development of the production structure of such organizations. The obtained discriminant function has a high accuracy (97.1% of the initial observations were correctly classified), which proves the possibility of its practical application for predicting the onset of organizational transformation associated with a change in the type of production structure. Thus, the results of the study can be used to manage the long-term development of Russian construction organizations, which requires correlation of the developed strategic goals with the structural changes necessary to achieve them.
Keywords: organisational structure, organisational development, discriminant analysis, forecasting
JEL-classification: М11, М19, О21
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