Development prospects for labour market of rural areas under unstable socio-economic conditions
Likhachyova T.N.1
1 Вологодский научный центр Российской академии наук
Download PDF | Downloads: 17 | Citations: 8
Journal paper
Russian Journal of Labour Economics (РИНЦ, ВАК)
опубликовать статью | оформить подписку
Volume 4, Number 4 (October-December 2017)
Indexed in Russian Science Citation Index: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=32232418
Cited: 8 by 16.08.2020
Abstract:
The article presents the main results of the research on natural movement of population (death rates in particular) and dynamics of average number of employees in organizations in rural territories of the Northwestern Federal District based on official statistics. The aim of the article is to forecast death rates and staffing level in organizations in rural territories of the Northwestern Federal District. To achieve this goal we build regression models through which we make forecast calculations for the studied parameters by groups of regions of the studied federal district. The grouping of the regions is based on a demographic approach, i.e. their classification is related to the level of preponderance of rural population over urban population. The main research result is the calculation of forecast values of death rates and average number of employees in the short term (up to 2020) on the basis of regression equations. The author concludes that the existence of approved projects for rural territories development alone is not a sufficient condition for building efficient administration system. Other necessary conditions are political will, purposeful fundraising activity, and the formation of territories' investment appeal.
Keywords: natural movement of population, forecasting, social and economic development, rural territories, employees of organizations
JEL-classification: J11, C 01, C 53
Highlights:
- Зафиксированная естественная убыль и сокращение численности работников организаций говорит о невозможности создавать условия для перехода сельских территорий на путь роста экономики;
- Вариативные расчёты выявили необходимость разработки и реализации мероприятий по развитию здравоохранения и обеспечению экологической безопасности;
- Существующие проекты, направленные на увеличение заработной платы у работников в бюджетной сфере, путём сокращения штата сотрудников не решают проблему, а только обостряют, создавая напряженность среди населения;
- Сельские территории играют важную историко-культурную роль, способствуют росту благосостояния страны, а также обеспечивают её продовольственную безопасность;
- Для развития сельских территорий необходима политическая воля, целенаправленная деятельность по привлечению средств не только из бюджетов, также необходимо формирование инвестиционной привлекательности территорий.
References:
Kalashnikov K.N., Likhachyova T.N. (2017). Problemy defitsita meditsinskikh kadrov v selskikh territoriyakh [Problems of the Shortage of Medical Personnel in Rural Areas]. Voprosy territorialnogo razvitiya. (2(37)). 15. (in Russian).
Kharchenko M.A. (2008). Korrelyatsionnyy analiz [Correlation analysis] Voronezh: Izd-vo VGU. (in Russian).
Leonidova G.V., Chekmareva E.A., Sovetov P.M., Panov M.M. (2015). Trudovoy potentsial selskikh territoriy: metodologicheskie aspekty otsenki [Labor potential of rural areas: methodological assessment aspects ] Vologda: ISERT RAN. (in Russian).
Likhachyova T.N., Korolenko A.V., Kalashnikov K.N. (2016). Demograficheskiy prognoz chislennosti selskogo naseleniya Severo-Zapadnogo federalnogo okruga [Demographic Forecast of the Number of Rural Population in the Northwestern Federal District]. Problems of Territory’s Development. (6(86)). 112-131. (in Russian).
Morozov G.N., Alekseev G.V. (2013). Kulturno-dosugovye uchrezhdeniya: problemy i resheniya [Institutions of culture and leisure: problems and solutions]. Power. (7). 82-85. (in Russian).
OECD regional typologyDirectorate for Public Governance and Territorial Developmen. Retrieved from http://www.oecd.org/regional/regionaldevelopment/42392595.pdf
Panov M.M. (2014). Trudovye resursy selskikh territoriy: sostoyanie i problemy [Workforce of rural areas: status and problems]. Voprosy territorialnogo razvitiya. (5(15)). 11. (in Russian).
Rayzberg B.A., Lozovskiy L.Sh., Starodubtseva E.B. (1999). Sovremennyy ekonomicheskiy slovar [ Dictionary of Modern Economics] M.: INFRA-M. (in Russian).
Shibaeva E.E. (2012). Gosudarstvennye mery po privlecheniyu molodyozhi v selskuyu mestnost: demograficheskiy aspekt [Government measures of bringing young people to rural areas: demographic aspect]. Theory and practice of social development. (7). 195-197. (in Russian).
Territorial Grids of OECD Member Countries. Retrieved from http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/4/42027551.pdf
Ustinova K.A., Likhachyova T.N. (2016). Problemy demograficheskogo razvitiya selskikh territoriy (na primere SZFO) [Problems of demographic development of rural areas (for example, the Northwestern Federal District)]. Regional economics and management: electronic scientific journal. (4(48)). 18. (in Russian).
Страница обновлена: 12.04.2025 в 08:33:21