Model of behavior of participants of the retail fuel market in the conditions of information asymmetry
Kislyakov A.N.1
1 Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации (Владимирский филиал)
Download PDF | Downloads: 16 | Citations: 4
Journal paper
Journal of International Economic Affairs (РИНЦ, ВАК)
опубликовать статью | оформить подписку
Volume 9, Number 1 (January-March 2019)
Indexed in Russian Science Citation Index: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=38228719
Cited: 4 by 28.06.2023
Abstract:
The work is aimed at solving the actual problem of assessing the behavior of participants in the retail fuel market in the conditions of rising prices caused by an increase in the value added tax rate. The proposed approach is based on the application of the Monte Carlo method to simulate the behavior of sellers of the retail fuel market while reducing the flow of customers one of the competing fuel companies in the market, taking into account the structure of the price of a liter of fuel in the market. On the basis of the constructed model has done the estimation of the optimal cost of a liter of fuel in a competitive environment, depending on the number of competitors, as well as of the flow of buyers. The dependence of the average profit of one transaction and the optimal price of the offer on the price per liter of fuel with a decrease in the volume of fuel acquisition are studied, the results of modeling the behavior of sellers when changing the preferences of buyers are presented.
Keywords: value added tax, simulation modeling, Monte Carlo method, market asymmetry
JEL-classification: C63, C53, C65, C15
Highlights:
- 1. Недостаточная информированность участников рынка порождает рыночную асимметрию.
- 2. Каждый покупатель имеет свои предпочтения при покупке топлива у конкретного поставщика.
- 3. Наличие конкурентов и уровень безразличия предпочтений покупателей резко влияет на снижение цены предложения на розничном рынке топлива.
- 4. Снижение потока покупателей у отдельного крупного поставщика не влияет на снижение оптимальной цены на топливо.
- 5. Цена реализации топлива чрезвычайно чувствительна к его себестоимости.
References:
Kislyakov A.N. (2018). Metody optimizatsii v ekonomike i upravlenii [Optimization methods in economics and management] Vladimir: Vladimirskiy filial RANKhiGS. (in Russian).
Kislyakov A.N. (2017). Vliyanie filtratsii Fure na tochnost prognoza sotsialno-ekonomicheskikh pokazateley [The effect of Fourier filtering on the accuracy of the forecast of socio-economic indicators]. Scientific notes. (2(22)). 78-82. (in Russian).
Kislyakov A.N. (2018). Fraktalnyy analiz v zadachakh prognozirovaniya sotsialno-ekonomicheskikh protsessov [Fractal analysis in forecasting of socio-economic processes]. Novaya ekonomika i regionalnaya nauka. (1(10)). 36-39. (in Russian).
Kislyakov A.N. (2018). Ispolzovanie fraktalnoy razmernosti v tekhnicheskom analize rynka kripotovalyut [The use of fractal dimension in technical analysis of market cryptowall]. Scientific notes. (1(25)). 101-105. (in Russian).
Kislyakov A.N., Savelev I.I. (2018). Issledovanie matematicheskikh metodov analiza i otsenki kachestva gosudarstvennyh i munitsipalnyh uslug, predostavlyaemyh v elektronnom vide [Study of mathematical methods of analysis and assessment of quality of state and municipal services, available in in electronic form]. Economics and management: problems, solutions (Ekonomika i upravleniye: problemy, resheniya nauchno-prakticheskiy zhurnal). 3 (10). 48-52. (in Russian).
Mamiy E.A., Yakhimovich E.S. (2018). Sovremennye podkhody k otsenke riskov investitsionnyh proektov [Modern approaches to assessing risks of investment projects]. Economics and business: theory and practice. 1 (5). 155-160. (in Russian).
Nalivkin D.V. (2008). Ispolzovanie posledovatelnyh metodov Monte-Karlo dlya otsenivaniya riskov na finansovyh rynkakh [The use of sequential methods of Monte Carlo for estimation risk in financial markets]. Administration. (21). 71-83. (in Russian).
Polyakov S.V., Kislyakov A.N. (2017). Osnovy matematicheskogo modelirovaniya sotsialno-ekonomicheskikh protsessov [Foundations of mathematical modeling of socio-economic processes] Vladimir: Vladimirskiy filial RANKhiGS. (in Russian).
Rau V.G., Kislyakov A.N., Tikhonyuk N.E., Rau T.F. (2018). Printsip narusheniya asimmetrii v modelyakh razvitiya ekonomicheskikh sistem opyt i problemy [Violations of the principle of asymmetry in the models of economic systems development experience and problems] Regional economy: experience and problems. 201-211. (in Russian).
Tikhonyuk N.E., Kislyakov A.N. (2018). Ekonomicheskie modeli raboty s asimmetriey informatsii: evolyutsiya podkhodov [Economic models of work with information asymmetry: evolution of approaches] Regional economy: experience and problems. 236-244. (in Russian).
Zakharov A.V., Kharlamov A.V. (2010). K voprosu o primenenii imitatsionnogo modelirovaniya metodom Monte-Karlo v zadachakh otsenki fundamentalnoy stoimosti obekta otsenki [To the question on application of imitating modelling by method monte-karlo in problems of the estimation of fundamental cost]. Property Relations in the Russian Federation. (5(104)). 28-45. (in Russian).
Страница обновлена: 31.03.2025 в 15:35:36