About forecast estimates of dynamics of change in the number of personnel of the company in the process of consolidation of its assets
Lebidko V.V.1
1 ООО «Стэп Лоджик»
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Journal paper
Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship *
Volume 19, Number 9 (September 2018)
* Этот журнал не выпускается в Первом экономическом издательстве
Abstract:
In this paper, an attempt is made to construct a generalized model describing some mechanisms for the loss of personnel of a large holding associated with the consolidation of its infrastructural assets.
Modeling was carried out by constructing distributions of the number of personnel, as a function of probabilistic location and commitment factors, and the total amount of personnel outflow in each of the holding companies was determined.
Estimates of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios were made by calculating the average amount of a person's shares (in percents) relative to the total number of personnel of each holding company, the average absolute forecasted loss of employees was determined, the main contribution to forecast losses from certain groups of personnel was identified, "losses" from certain groups of specialists and business units, in which these "losses" are predicted. Also, an expert assessment is given, replenishment of "losses" of personnel.
The results of the simulation can be used to quantify the "migration" of the workforce of an enterprise, as a consequence of its restructuring.
Keywords: scenario modeling; assets; loyalty; group; risks; loss; outflow
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