Forecasting of volumes of the population investments into fixed capital into resident construction in the republic of belarus
Eremenko M.M.1
1 Институт жилища – НИПТИС им. Атаева С.С.
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Journal paper
Russian Journal of Housing Research (РИНЦ, ВАК)
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Volume 5, Number 3 (July-September 2018)
Indexed in Russian Science Citation Index: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=36640247
Cited: 1 by 20.05.2020
Abstract:
The article is devoted to the problem of regional development – developing a methodological , with the help of which it is possible to predict levels of investment of the population into construction of houses. The methodology was built on the basis of logical-analytical methods and multivariate correlation and regression analysis. Development of the methodology included three main blocks. The first block involves compiling the broadest list of economic factors that determine the value of a resulting symptom. In the second block, a selection of factors from the existing list was carried out and an economic-mathematical model was constructed. The third section assessed the precision of the model. Approbation of methodological tools is done on the example of the Republic of Belarus, for which a model was developed and a forecast was compiled. In the model were selected such factors as the availability of housing as a ratio of nominal gross average monthly wages to the cost of construction of 1 sq.m. of housing and a monetary income per capita. Predictive indicator were calculated for the model in three different scenarios: on the basis of indicators of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus, determined according to the governmental policy documents of the Republic of Belarus in the current five-year period, the trends for three periods ahead and also in accordance with the pessimistic prediction for the period. The resulting model allowed to calculate that the increase in monetary income per capita by 1 ruble leads to an increase of investment in public fixed capital for construction of residential houses by 5 million rubles. Prediction of the volume of investment in public fixed capital for the construction of houses can be useful for developers of residential buildings, manufacturers of building materials, Republican state management bodies, other interested organizations and citizens.
Keywords: investment, housing policy, housing construction, correlation and regression analysis, housing programs, funding sources, residential homes, better housing, technique of selection of factors, the input of housing in operation
JEL-classification: L74, R31, R38
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