Forecasting of the market value of the commercial real estate based on indices of the territorial economic development

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Journal paper

Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship *
Volume 17, Number 19 (October 2016)
* Этот журнал не выпускается в Первом экономическом издательстве

Citation:

Abstract:
Assessment and forecasting of the market value of the commercial real estate becomes more relevant in the period of development of the competitive environment, the increased number of completed transactions for purchase and sale of the real estate and credit transactions, pledging of the real estate. The article studies the use of economic and mathematical methods for assessment and forecasting of the market value of the commercial real estate depending on indices of the economic development of the territory where the object is located. Using the correlative analysis, the interconnection between the market value of the commercial real estate and indices of economic development are assessed, factors that have the strong effect on the market value of the commercial real estate are disclosed on the basis of which regression equations are built. With the help of the variance analysis, it is determined that the most accurate equation is the one that describes the interconnection between the market value of the commercial real estate and investments to the capital stock per capita, the market value of the residential real estate. Based on the regression model the market value of the commercial real estate for 2016-2019 is forecasted.

Keywords: commercial real estate, correlative analysis, assessment of the value, indices of economic development

JEL-classification: R11, C13, C53, R33

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