A study on the changes of Northeast Asian countries' cognition on "One Belt and One Road" initiative and economic and trade cooperation in Heilongjiang Province

Introduction

Russia is an indispensable and important country in the "One Belt and One Road" initiative. Russia's One Belt and One Road initiative has experienced a process from negative doubt, basic recognition and active participation. The first stage is negative doubts. In September 2013, when Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed a joint initiative to build a Silk Road Economic Belt, the Russian side expressed some doubts. On the one hand, the northern route of the Silk Road Economic Belt stretches across Central Asia, including southern Russia and the Baltic countries of Europe. For many years, Russia has regarded Central Asia as part of its sphere of influence and fears that China's "One Belt and One Road" initiative may undermine the cohesion of the Eurasian Economic Union [1] (Zhang Fenglin, 2018). On the other hand, in recent years, China has been expanding its economic influence with Central Asian countries through growing trade cooperation, investment cooperation and infrastructure construction. However, Russia originally planned to accelerate the process of Eurasian integration with Russia as the center through the concept of "Eurasian Economic Union". Therefore, Russia was worried about competition with China's "One Belt and One Road" initiative, worried that China would obtain raw materials and infrastructure projects from Central Asia, and then replace Russia's influence in the region [2] (Shen Lihua et al., 2019). The second stage is basic recognition. After Russia's annexation of Crimea, western countries imposed sanctions on Russia's economy. Facing internal and external pressure, Russia turned to the east for economic development and began to attach importance to the relationship with China by virtue of diplomatic efforts to break through isolation and gain financial access to more Chinese credit. The third stage is active participation. After a period of negative doubts and basic recognition, Russia began to actively participate in China's "One Belt and One Road" initiative. In May, the leaders of the two countries jointly pledged to link the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union with the China-led Silk Road Economic Belt. At the first One Belt and One Road summit held in Beijing in May 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed and welcomed the initiative of the Silk Road Economic Belt. "In view of the current world economic situation, China's 'One Belt and One Road' initiative is gaining more and more practical urgency, and Russia welcomes Chinese friends to develop the Northern Sea Route within the framework of One Belt and One Road initiative," Putin said at the 15th Valdai International Debate Club Annual Meeting on 19 October 2018.

As a relatively developed country in Northeast Asia and a close neighbor of China, Japan is an important factor to promote the "One Belt and One Road" initiative. Japan also experienced a process from repulsion, passivity, wait-and-see to limited participation in "One Belt and One Road" initiative. The first stage is rejection and negative resistance. The territorial dispute over the Diaoyu Islands between China and Japan has led to a "political and economic chill" in China-Japan relations. After China put forward the One Belt and One Road initiative in 2013, Japan initially took a largely wait-and-see attitude. First of all, the regions involved in the "One Belt and One Road" initiative, such as Central, South and Southeast Asia, overlap with the key areas of Japan's infrastructure export, which is bound to produce competition. Of course, Japan will be very wary of this and think it is not conducive to Japan's development. Secondly, it believes that the "One Belt and One Road" initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (hereinafter referred to as AIIB), which is led by China, have challenged the international economic order, touched the vested interests and status of Japan and the United States, and broken the economic dominance of Japan and the United States in Asia [3] (Jin Chengxiao, 2019). Thirdly, after China surpassed Japan in the size of its economy (GDP) in 2010, the Japanese government had a serious sense of strategic anxiety and crisis. Fourthly, Japan follows the United States and maintains the country's geopolitical strategy – the Indo-Pacific strategy. Based on the above considerations, the Japanese government is full of rejection attitude towards the "One Belt and One Road" initiative and adopts the "boycott" policy [4] (Chen Min, 2017). For example, in May 2015, the Abe government announced that it planned to invest US $110 billion in Asian countries in the next five years to meet the financial needs of infrastructure construction in the region, which was regarded as a "challenge" to AIIB by the public opinion circles. The second stage is objective evaluation and limited participation. In 2017, Japan's attitude towards China's "One Belt and One Road" initiative changed. There are mainly the following points. Firstly, bilateral politics are improving. In May 2017, Toshibo Nikai, then secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, led a delegation to attend a forum related to the "One Belt and One Road" in China. In June, the then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in a public speech that the One Belt and One Road initiative "has the potential to connect different regions" and expressed willingness to cooperate with China on One Belt and One Road. In May 2018, when Premier Li Keqiang attended the Seventh China–Japan–ROK Leaders' Meeting and paid an official visit to Japan, the Japanese government extended the highest courtesy to him as a "public guest". At this juncture, there has been talk of "returning to the normal track" of China-Japan relations. Since then, high-level exchanges between the two countries have been strengthened. In October 2019, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe paid an official visit to China after a gap of seven years. Secondly, the "One Belt and One Road" initiative "moved" Japan. The "One Belt and One Road" initiative has been progressing smoothly since it was put forward and has brought more and more benefits to the economic development of neighboring countries. The attitude of friendship, openness, consultation, joint contribution and sharing also promoted the participation of the Japanese economic circle. Japanese enterprises found new business opportunities through the "One Belt and One Road" route and hoped that the government would consider joining. Thirdly, the appeal of the AIIB should be noted. On January 16, 2016, after more than 800 days of preparation, the AIIB finally opened its doors, and major countries in Asia and Europe announced to join the AIIB one after another. As of April 22, 2019, the number of members of AIIB has reached 97, far exceeding the number of members of the Asian Development Bank. Theoretically speaking, the earlier the participating countries join, the more they can participate in the formulation of rules, and the more conducive to the development of enterprises and government regulation of participating countries. Facts have proved that the AIIB and ADB can complement each other in a variety of ways to achieve win-win results. For this reason, some Japanese media worried that Japan would be "isolated" and suggested that the government join the AIIB. Fourthly, there is a need for bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation. Over the past seven years since the implementation of the "One Belt and One Road" initiative, economic and trade development with countries along the Belt and Road has made remarkable achievements and been welcomed by them. For China and Japan, it is in the interests of both countries to continue the cooperation between Chinese and Japanese enterprises in Southeast Asia and South Asia, reduce frictions and losses, give play to their respective advantages, share the benefits and achievements of cooperation, and strengthen cooperation in third-party markets with the help of the "One Belt and One Road" initiative [5] Zhang Lihua et al., 2019).

On June 27, 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Osaka, and the two sides reached a four-point consensus. Among them, the fourth consensus is that “Japan sees the One Belt and One Road initiative as a potential idea for connecting diverse regions. China welcomes Japan's active participation in high-quality joint construction of the One Belt and One Road. The two sides will continue to strive for solid results in cooperation in third-party markets. The two sides support enterprises of the two countries to expand mutual investment and affirm to provide a fair, non-discriminatory and predictable business environment for each other's enterprises” [6].

On the whole, the Japanese government's attitude towards the "One Belt and One Road" initiative has changed slightly from the initial rejection and wait-and-see to the current basic recognition. The passive wait-and-see attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative stems from their consideration of interests and fear of damage to their interests. The change of attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative is due to the realization that One Belt and One Road can bring huge business opportunities [7]. At the same time, the withdrawal of the United States from TPP and the recognition of "One Belt and One Road" by major countries all have an impact on the change of Japanese attitude [8] (Jiang Yuechun, 2019). In short, Japan began to change its attitude towards "One Belt and One Road", seeking power, profit and diplomatic advantage through conditional support while remaining cautious.

The South Korean government always pays high attention to the "One Belt and One Road" initiative, and holds diversified cognitive attitudes, but the positive and affirmative ones are the main ones.

South Korean scholars believe that the "One Belt and One Road" initiative is a new starting point for China to further implement reform and opening up, which is also out of geopolitical strategic considerations. The "One Belt and One Road" initiative will help to solve China's existing structural economic problems and expand its strategic space. For South Korea, the strategic goal of participating in the construction of "One Belt and One Road" is to promote economic growth, stabilize the situation on the peninsula and expand international space [9] (Lu Chunyan, 2018). Therefore, the South Korean government has been willing to participate in the "One Belt and One Road" on the policy position. First, actively investigate and explore ways to participate. After China put forward the "One Belt and One Road" initiative, the ROK responded positively. In April 2015, an interview team composed of the "Central Daily News" and other major media in South Korea followed the northern route of the "Silk Road" to Lianyungang, Zhengzhou, Lanzhou, Urumqi, Horgos, and Almaty in Kazakhstan, Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan, Tashkent in Uzbekistan and other countries and cities, conducted inspections and interviews, and reported positively the positive impact of the "Belt and Road" on South Korea. At the beginning of 2018, One Belt and One Road Research Institute, a Korean association legal person, was established to publish the journal of One Belt and One Road to promote communication and cooperation between Korea and China. Second, actively participate. In March 2015, the South Korean government announced its decision to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. In May 2017, the Moon Jae-in government sent a delegation to attend the “Belt and Road” International Cooperation Summit Forum held in Beijing, indicating that the new government is willing to actively participate in the “Belt and Road”. The third is to align development strategies. In October 2015, China and the ROK signed a series of documents including the Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and the Eurasian Initiative, marking the new stage of strategic alignment and cooperation between the two countries. At the end of the same year, during the East Asia Summit of the three countries, consensus was reached on jointly exploring third-party markets, carrying out international cooperation on production capacity, and strengthening cooperation on innovation, smart manufacturing and research and development of high-end technologies [10].

Mongolia is an important node country of "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor". When the One Belt and One Road initiative was first proposed, it was still unclear whether Mongolia would reap economic benefits. During the second regular meeting of the heads of state of China, Mongolia and Russia in July 2015, the three countries issued the Roadmap of Development Cooperation between China, Russia and Mongolia, and signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly formulate the planning outline of the economic corridor. During the third meeting between the heads of state of Tashkent, Russia, Russia and Mongolia in 2016, the three countries jointly issued a series of cooperation documents, including the Outline of the Plan for Building the China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor, which laid the foundation for the synergy of the three countries' respective strategies and initiatives and the multi-field cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia.

Under the project specifications signed during the first meeting of the three countries, the ideas of relevant Mongolian institutions gradually became clear, and Mongolia's participation in the "One Belt and One Road" strategic concept was made clear, and active cooperation began to be promoted. At this time, the level of recognition of "One Belt and One Road" in Mongolia is uneven. First, Mongolian scholars' recognition is relatively high. Scholars believe that Mongolia's connection with the "One Belt and One Road" initiative and participation in the construction of "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor" will bring a lot of benefits and development opportunities to Mongolia. For Mongolia, the construction of "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor" focuses on infrastructure construction such as transportation. While obtaining the benefits of infrastructure construction, transit transportation can also enable Mongolia to obtain economic benefits. Then, through the convenient advantages of railway, highway and aviation network, the export opportunities of products will be increased and cultural exchanges will be expanded, so as to drive the economic benefits of tourism and other industries, and greater expectations will be placed on the construction of the "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor". Second, the government actively promoted it. From the perspective of the government, after China put forward the "One Belt and One Road" initiative, the Mongolian government also gave a positive response out of domestic political and economic considerations. According to its own geographical advantages and national needs, Mongolia has formally established a special working group on "Road of Development", which is in line with the "One Belt and One Road" initiative, to promote the implementation of the "Road of Development" project and incorporate the major project of "Road of Development" into the national development strategic plan. It is hoped that through the strategic docking between the "Development Road" and China's "One Belt and One Road" initiative, the cooperation between China and Mongolia will be strengthened, and the infrastructure construction in Mongolia will be improved to achieve the purpose of revitalizing the economy. The "Development Road" consists of five projects with a total investment of about $50 billion. The projects include a 997 km expressway linking Russia and China, 1,100 km of electrified railway, expansion of trans-Mongolian railway and gas and oil pipelines [11] (Jiang Zhenjun, 2019). In May 2016, the construction of Mongolia's first expressway, known as the "China – Mongolia Friendship Road", was started. Third, the recognition of the general public has gradually increased. Like many scholars and government officials, most people also believe that China's "One Belt and One Road" initiative and the construction of "China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor" will bring a lot of opportunities to Mongolia; however, there is still a lack of knowledge about the relevant projects and implementation process. According to the relevant survey, 55.4% of the 220 people surveyed know the construction of the "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor", but 37.4 of them know the construction of the "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor", but they do not know the specific content. 59.9 percent agree that the "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor" will bring a lot of development opportunities to Mongolia, while 6.8 percent oppose it, while 33.3 percent don't know how much benefit it will bring.

The general situation of economic and trade development between Heilongjiang Province and Northeast Asian countries

As Heilongjiang Province continues the construction of the China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor, its economic and trade cooperation with Russia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mongolia and other Northeast Asian countries is deepening. In 2019, the total value of Heilongjiang's foreign trade reached 27.1 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%. Among them, the import and export trade volume with Russia, Japan and South Korea was 18.45billion US dollars, 390 million US dollars, 277 million US dollars respectively, accounting for 68.1%, 1.4%, 1.0% and 5.4% of the total foreign trade volume of the province respectively, with a large increase compared with 2018 (Table 1).

Table 1

Statistics of foreign trade import and export between Heilongjiang Province and Northeast Asian countries from 2016 to 2019

Unit: $100 million

In 2019, the total value of China-Russia foreign trade exceeded $100 billion, a record high. Among them, Heilongjiang-Russia economic and trade cooperation is the top priority. In 2019, Heilongjiang's import and export value with Russia reached $18.45 billion. Among them, the total value of exports was $1.4 billion, UP 27.9 percent year on year, while the total value of imports was $17.01 billion, down -1.9 percent year on year (Table 2). In the context of the strategic docking of "One Belt and One Road" and "Eurasian Economic Union", Heilongjiang-Russia economic and trade cooperation will have greater space for improvement.

Table 2

Statistics of Heilongjiang Province's import and export trade with

Russia from 2015 to 2019

Unit: $100 million

In 2016 and 2017, Heilongjiang's trade volume with Japan continued to rebound, with the total value of import and export reaching US $370 million and US $430 million respectively, up 23.6% and 13.9% year-on-year. In 2018, Heilongjiang's total import and export trade with Japan declined slightly, with a total value of 360 million US dollars, down 17.4 percent from 2017. Interdependence and common development have always been the goal of both China and Japan as Japan is a traditional trading partner of China. Heilongjiang province and Japan are seeking breakthroughs in trade, science and technology, tourism and cooperation with a third country as Sino-Japanese relations are warming.

Since the second half of 2017, with the leaders of China and the ROK meeting several times and the ROK President's visit to China, China–ROK relations have gradually improved and bilateral economic and trade cooperation has gradually recovered. In 2018, the total value of Heilongjiang's import and export trade with South Korea was 230 million US dollars, up 19.2% compared with 2017. The total value of export was 160 million US dollars, up 35.2% year on year, with a significant increase. The total value of import was 70 million US dollars, down 6.5% year on year. With the strategic docking between China's "One Belt and One Road" initiative and South Korea's "New Northern Policy", Heilongjiang-South Korea economic and trade cooperation is expected to reach a new level.

With the rise of international energy prices in 2018, the economic recovery of Mongolia is bound to be conducive to the heating up of Heilongjiang-Mongolia economic and trade cooperation. In 2018, the total value of Heilongjiang's import and export trade with Mongolia was $140 million, 52.4% higher than that of 2017, showing a significant increase [12] (Mu Yaoqian, 2019). Among them, the proportion of imports increased significantly, with the total value of imports reaching 110 million US dollars, up 264.6% year on year. With the construction of China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor and the improvement of Mongolia's infrastructure, Heilongjiang Province will have greater opportunities for economic and trade cooperation with Mongolia.

Heilongjiang's economic and trade development opportunities with Northeast Asian countries

In May 2017, the "One Belt and One Road" Forum for International Cooperation was held in Beijing. Countries in Northeast Asia showed great interest and sent representatives to attend the Forum. The core concept of "peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and mutual benefit" conveyed by the "One Belt and One Road" initiative will play an important role in the economic development of Northeast Asia and the deepening of regional economic cooperation. In 2019, the second "One Belt and One Road" National Summit Forum marked that the joint construction of One Belt and One Road has entered a new stage of comprehensive implementation. By actively carrying out the "One Belt and One Road" to integrate the development strategies of relevant parties continue, the internal market potential in Northeast Asia will be fulfilled.

The report to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) emphasized the importance of "One Belt and One Road" development, the equal emphasis on "bringing in" and "going global" development, the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, and the strengthening of innovation capacity, opening up and cooperation, so as to form an opening pattern featuring interconnection between land and sea, and mutual assistance between east and west.

First, new opportunities brought about by connectivity. Road connectivity is the prerequisite for unimpeded trade, and also the prerequisite for Heilongjiang Province to build an export-oriented logistics and industrial system facing Russia and Europe and Asia. The key to the construction of "China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor" is to form a smooth, safe, stable and convenient passage for trade. "Infrastructure connectivity" will give a strong boost to economic and trade exchanges among countries in the region. On the one hand, the construction of "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor" will inevitably affect the reconstruction and expansion of a large number of infrastructure, upgrade and improve the port functions. For example, the "Binhai No. 1" and "Binhai No. 2" international transport corridors, the Ice Silk Road and the oil pipeline routes jointly built by China and Russia will surely boost the trade and investment of countries in the region [13] (Lin Muxi, 2018). On the other hand, a complete "Heilongjiang Corridor" will further promote economic and trade cooperation in this region. At present, the construction of key passages, important ports, and key projects is being vigorously promoted with Hajia, Hamu, Hada, Haqi and other border railways as the framework. An international cargo transport network linking Asia and Europe is taking shape, assisted by roads, waterways, aviation, pipelines, power grids and optical cables, railway stations, ports and airports, which is an important platform of "One Belt and One Road" connecting Russia, Europe and the Asia Pacific and a "hub" of economic and trade cooperation between China and Northeast Asian countries [14] (Zhang Yunling, Li Dongxin, 2019).

Second, the new opportunities brought by the pilot free trade zones. The development strategy of free trade area is the objective requirement for China to adapt to the new trend of economic globalization, and free trade area has become an important means of developing strategic cooperation and competition among major powers. In August 2019, the China (Heilongjiang) Pilot Free Trade Zone was approved. It is a major decision made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. It is based on the strategic positioning of opening up along the Heilongjiang River given by the state, and it is a major opportunity given by the state to Heilongjiang Province for a new round of expanding opening up, so as to speed up the construction of Heilongjiang Province as an open plateau for cooperation with Russia and Northeast Asia.

It has proved that since the establishment of the first free trade zone in Shanghai in 2013, China has made remarkable achievements in major economic indicators, serving the overall interests of the country, and making useful explorations in trade facilitation, investment management system facilitation, financial system innovation, administrative function transformation and other aspects for the purpose of the social benefits. Taking Shanghai as an example, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone covers an area of 120.72 square kilometers, accounting for about 1.9% of Shanghai's land area, but in 2017 it created 25% of Shanghai's GDP and 40% of its total import and export volume [15] (Hu Chenguang, Li Yingzhen, 2019). Guangdong Free Trade Zone was established in 2015, with an accumulative total of 210,000 new enterprises and 9,639 foreign-invested enterprises, and the actual utilization of foreign investment amounted to US $128.5 billion [16] (Wang Shengjin, 2020).

With institutional innovation as the core and replicability and extension as the basic requirement, the Heilongjiang Free Trade Zone fully implements the requirements of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to promote the all-round revitalization of Northeast China and build an important window open to the north, focuses on deepening the adjustment of industrial structure, and becomes a central hub for regional cooperation with Russia and Northeast Asia. Through the reform and innovation in the aspects of free trade facilitation measures, tariff reduction and exemption, convenient foreign exchange control, market access conditions, etc., Heilongjiang Province will attract domestic and foreign investment, introduce advanced technology, reduce the transportation cost of enterprises, and create new opportunities for Heilongjiang Province's economic and trade development with Russia and Northeast Asian countries.

Third, the strategies alignment to create new opportunities. Since the "One Belt and One Road" initiative was put forward, especially in the seven years since the construction of the "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor", Northeast Asian countries such as Russia, Mongolia and the Republic of Korea have all hoped to enhance trade cooperation, promote domestic economic growth and accelerate regional economic development with the help of the docking of China's economic development strategy with their own development strategies. The connection between "Eurasian Economic Union" and the China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor will not only enhance Russian attractiveness to other members of the "Eurasian Economic Union", but also increase Russia's investment in the "Eurasian Economic Union", which plays a vital role in speeding up the process of Eurasian economic integration. Through the docking of the "Development Road" with the "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor", Mongolia can make effective use of funds such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Fund to take cross-border infrastructure construction as the key breakthrough point of its development strategy. It will not only promote the economic development of China and Mongolia, but also enhance exchanges and expand economic and trade exchanges for other countries in Northeast Asia with the formation of common economic space on the Eurasian continent in the process of regional economic integration. The "Eurasia Initiative", the "New Northern Policy" of South Korea and the "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor" in the "One Belt and One Road" of China all cover the northeast of China, Korea, Russia and Mongolia. By connecting with the "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor", South Korea can realize three main lines across the Eurasian continent, completely covering the entire Eurasian continent, which will greatly promote the connectivity of Northeast Asia and radiate the entire Eurasian economic circle.

With the continuous progress of China's construction of the "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor" and the in-depth docking of the strategic layout of various countries, China, the ROK, Japan and Russia can carry out practical cooperation in the third market including the DPRK and Russia such as agricultural cooperation in the Russian Far East and building the "Ice Silk Road".

Conclusion

Over the past seven years, the China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor has turned from a vision to a reality and achieved fruitful results, attracting worldwide attention. So far, Northeast Asian countries have gone through a process of skepticism, observation, careful participation and basic recognition. Continuously and deeply advancing the construction of "China – Mongolia – Russia Economic Corridor" is of vital importance to promoting economic and trade development between our province and Northeast Asian countries.