Forecasting the capacity and retail prices in the Russian B2C fish products market
Ramazanov I.A1
, Perelman M.A.1
1 Российский экономический университет им. Г.В. Плеханова
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Journal paper
Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship *
Volume 19, Number 3 (March 2018)
* Этот журнал не выпускается в Первом экономическом издательстве
Abstract:
We assess the capacity of Russian B2C fish and fish products market in the context of changes in the traditions of consumption in general across Russia and selected regions. We present matrix method for determining the configuration of price fluctuations, allowing to take into account the influence of consumption traditions and the legitimate expectations of customers. This approach allows us to predict and form a pricing policy that focuses on the expectations and moods of consumers and their steady shopping activity. We make price forecasts for frozen fish up to 2022.
Keywords: market capacity, price forecasting, B2C of fish market, market forecasting
JEL-classification: D40, Q22, D49
References:
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Galiullina R.R. (2013). Issledovanie potrebitelskoy udovletvorennosti rynka ryby i ryboproduktsii v Respublike Bashkortostan [The study of consumer satisfaction of the fish and fish products market in the Republic of Bashkortostan]. Vestnik SamGU. (1(102)). 32-36. (in Russian).
Kiladze A.B. (2015). Rybnyy vopros v kontekste prodovolstvennoy bezopasnosti Rossii [Fish issue in the context of Russia's food security]. Rybnoe khozyaystvo. (6). 43-45. (in Russian).
Korneychuk B.V. (2017). Optimizatsiya produktovoy korziny: vzaimosvyaz ekonomicheskikh i meditsinskikh faktorov [Optimization of the food basket: the interrelation between economic and medical factors]. “Economic Policy” Journal. 12 (3). 236-257. (in Russian). doi: 10.18288/1994-5124-2017-3-10.
Kravchenko A.A., Sergeeva O.O. (2016). Analiz potrebitelskikh predpochteniy na rynke ryboproduktsii v Rossii i Kitae [Analysis of consumer preferences at russian and chinese markets of fish products]. Aziatsko-tikhookeanskiy region: Ekonomika, politika, pravo. (4). 53-65. (in Russian).
Lashmanov F.I. (2015). Mezhdunarodnyy rynok rybnoy produktsii i pozitsii rossii [International market of fish products and the position of Russia]. Problems of national strategy. (3(30)). 189-209. (in Russian).
Lukinyh M.I., Tazeeva I.Yu., Rakultseva N.G. (2014). Prodovolstvennaya bezopasnost: problemy kachestva rybnoy produktsii na primere Sverdlovskoy oblasti [Food security: quality problems of fish products by the example of the Sverdlovsk region]. European Social Science Journal. (8-3(47)). 413-422. (in Russian).
Lysakovskaya D.A. (2012). Rybokhozyaystvennyy kompleks Germanii: spros i predlozhenie, sostoyanie i perspektivy razvitiya [Fishery in Germany: supply and demand, status and development prospects]. Scientific journal of NIITMO. Series: Economics and Environmental Management. (1). 268-285. (in Russian).
Matveeva O.P., Chueva I.I. (2017). Importozameschenie i eksport kontekste prodovolstvennoy bezopasnosti strany i regiona [Import substitution and export in the context of the food security of the country and the region]. Herald of the Belgorod University of Cooperation, Economics and Law. (5(66)). 41-57. (in Russian).
Mukhamedova T.O. (2010). Osnovy formirovaniya konkurentnoy sredy na rynke rybnyh tovarov [Fundamentals of the formation of a competitive environment in the fish products market]. Business. Education. Law. Bulletin of the Volgograd Business Institute. (2(12)). 100-107. (in Russian).
Neuymin D.S. (2017). Sovremennoe sostoyanie i osobennosti razvitiya rynka ryby i rybnoy produktsii [The current status and development features of the fish and fish products market]. Tekhnologii pischevoy i pererabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti APK – produkty zdorovogo pitaniya. (1). 122-130. (in Russian).
Neuymin D.S. (2017). Sovremennoe sostoyanie i osobennosti razvitiya rynka ryby i rybnoy produktsii [The current status and development features of the fish and fish products market]. Tekhnologii pischevoy i pererabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti APK – produkty zdorovogo pitaniya. (1). 122-130. (in Russian).
Nikiforova A.P., Nikiforova O.P., Antokhonova I.V. (2017). Otsenka tendentsiy potrebleniya rybnyh produktov zhitelyami Respubliki Buryatiya [Assessment of Trends in Fish Products Consumption by the Citizens of the Republic of Buryatia]. Economy of the region. 13 (3). 948-958. (in Russian). doi: 10.17059/2017-3-25.
Pastushkova E.V., Chugunova O.V. (2017). Importozameschenie i ego rol v obespechenii prodovolstvennoy bezopasnosti i razvitii APK regiona [Food security and agricultural development in the region]. Proceedings of the Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies. 79 (3(73)). 277-285. (in Russian).
Pinho M.G.M., Mackenbach J.D., Charreire H., Oppert J.-M., Bárdos H., Glonti K., Rutter H., Compernolle S., Bourdeaudhuij I.De, Beulens J.W.J., Brug J., Lakerve J.ld (2017). Exploring the relationship between perceived barriers to healthy eating and dietary behaviours in European adults European Journal of Nutrition. 1-10. doi: 10.1007/s00394-017-1458-3.
Popadynets N., Shults S., Barna M. (2017). Differences in consumer buying behaviour in consumer markets of the EU member states and Ukraine(Article) Economic Annals-XXI. 166 (7-8). 26-30.
Popova S.A. (2015). Analiz tsenoobrazovaniya na konkurentnom rynke rybnoy produktsii v rybokhozyaystvennom komplekse kamchatskogo kraya [Pricing analysis of in a competitive market of fish production in the fishery complex of Kamchatka region]. Vestnik kamchatskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta. (34). 114-122. (in Russian). doi: 10.17217/2079-0333-2015-34-114-123 .
Ragozin N.N. (2015). Problemy rybokhozyaystvennogo kompleksa Rossii [Problems of the Russian Fishing Industry]. Bulletin of Far East State Technical Fisheries University FESTFU (VESTNIK DAL\'RYBVTUZA). (6). 26-29. (in Russian).
Romanova L.V. (2015). Analiz faktorov, opredelyayuschikh konechnuyu stoimost ryby v Tsentralnom federalnom okruge Rossii [Analysis of the factors determining the final cost of fish in the Central Federal District of Russia]. Vestnik APK Stavropolya. (1(17)). 352-355. (in Russian).
Romanova L.V. (2016). Osobennosti formirovaniya sprosa na rybnuyu produktsiyu v otdelnyh regionakh Tsentralnogo federalnogo okruga [Features of the formation of demand for fish products in certain regions of the central federal district]. Fundamental research. (2-1). 197-201. (in Russian).
Romanova L.V. (2016). Otsenka regionalnogo rynka rybnoy produktsii [Assessment of the regional market of fish products]. Vestnik ryazanskogo gosudarstvennogo agrotekhnologicheskogo universiteta im. p.a. kostycheva. (3(31)). 92-98. (in Russian).
Sinyakov S.A. (2015). Pokazateli i tendentsii rossiyskogo rybnogo rynka [Indices and trends on Russian fishery market]. Rybnoe khozyaystvo. (6). 22-29. (in Russian).
Skara T., Axelsson L., Stefansson G., Ekstrand B., Hagen H. (2015). Fermented and ripened fish products in the northern European countries Journal of Ethnic Foods. (2). 18-24. doi: 10.1016/j.jef.2015.02.004.
Skuland S.E. (2015). Healthy eating and barriers related to social class. The case of vegetable and fish consumption in Norway Appetite. (92). 217-226. doi: 10.1016/j.appet.2015.05.008.
The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. Contributing to food security and nutrition for alWorld fisheries and aquaculture production and utilization. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5555e.pdf
Vasilev A.M. (2016). Importozameschenie v rybnoy otrasli [Import substitution in the fisheries]. Natsionalnye interesy. (8(341)). 100-110. (in Russian).
Vasileva L.M. (2015). Problemy i perspektivy razvitiya akvakultury v Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Problems and prospects of development of aquaculture in the Russian Federation]. Tekhnologii pischevoy i pererabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti APK – produkty zdorovogo pitaniya. (1). 18-23. (in Russian).
Vasileva L.M., Abrosimova N.A., Abrosimov S.S. (2016). Rol tovarnogo rybovodstva v formirovanii prodovolstvennogo resursa Yuzhnogo federalnogo okruga [The role of commercial fisheries in the formation of the food resource of the Southern Federal District]. Tekhnologii pischevoy i pererabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti APK – produkty zdorovogo pitaniya. (3). 38-43. (in Russian).
Сведения об улове рыбы добыче других водных биоресурсов и производстве рыбной и иной продукции из них, производстве продукции товарной аквакультуры (товарного рыбоводства)Gov.ru. (in Russian). Retrieved from http://fish.gov.ru/files/documents/otraslevaya_deyatelnost/ekonomika_otrasli/statistika_analitika/f407-0_01-12_2016.pdf
Dvoryaninova O.P., Sokolov A.V., Cherkasov A.Z. (2015). Syrevaya baza vodnyh bioresursov kak faktor obespecheniya prodovolstvennoy bezopasnosti strany [Source of raw materials of water bioresources as factor of ensuring food security of the country]. Tekhnologii pischevoy i pererabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti APK – produkty zdorovogo pitaniya. (2-6). 22-29. (in Russian).
Galiullina R.R. (2013). Issledovanie potrebitelskoy udovletvorennosti rynka ryby i ryboproduktsii v Respublike Bashkortostan [The study of consumer satisfaction of the fish and fish products market in the Republic of Bashkortostan]. Vestnik SamGU. (1(102)). 32-36. (in Russian).
Kiladze A.B. (2015). Rybnyy vopros v kontekste prodovolstvennoy bezopasnosti Rossii [Fish issue in the context of Russia's food security]. Rybnoe khozyaystvo. (6). 43-45. (in Russian).
Korneychuk B.V. (2017). Optimizatsiya produktovoy korziny: vzaimosvyaz ekonomicheskikh i meditsinskikh faktorov [Optimization of the food basket: the interrelation between economic and medical factors]. “Economic Policy” Journal. 12 (3). 236-257. (in Russian). doi: 10.18288/1994-5124-2017-3-10.
Kravchenko A.A., Sergeeva O.O. (2016). Analiz potrebitelskikh predpochteniy na rynke ryboproduktsii v Rossii i Kitae [Analysis of consumer preferences at russian and chinese markets of fish products]. Aziatsko-tikhookeanskiy region: Ekonomika, politika, pravo. (4). 53-65. (in Russian).
Lashmanov F.I. (2015). Mezhdunarodnyy rynok rybnoy produktsii i pozitsii rossii [International market of fish products and the position of Russia]. Problems of national strategy. (3(30)). 189-209. (in Russian).
Lukinyh M.I., Tazeeva I.Yu., Rakultseva N.G. (2014). Prodovolstvennaya bezopasnost: problemy kachestva rybnoy produktsii na primere Sverdlovskoy oblasti [Food security: quality problems of fish products by the example of the Sverdlovsk region]. European Social Science Journal. (8-3(47)). 413-422. (in Russian).
Lysakovskaya D.A. (2012). Rybokhozyaystvennyy kompleks Germanii: spros i predlozhenie, sostoyanie i perspektivy razvitiya [Fishery in Germany: supply and demand, status and development prospects]. Scientific journal of NIITMO. Series: Economics and Environmental Management. (1). 268-285. (in Russian).
Matveeva O.P., Chueva I.I. (2017). Importozameschenie i eksport kontekste prodovolstvennoy bezopasnosti strany i regiona [Import substitution and export in the context of the food security of the country and the region]. Herald of the Belgorod University of Cooperation, Economics and Law. (5(66)). 41-57. (in Russian).
Mukhamedova T.O. (2010). Osnovy formirovaniya konkurentnoy sredy na rynke rybnyh tovarov [Fundamentals of the formation of a competitive environment in the fish products market]. Business. Education. Law. Bulletin of the Volgograd Business Institute. (2(12)). 100-107. (in Russian).
Neuymin D.S. (2017). Sovremennoe sostoyanie i osobennosti razvitiya rynka ryby i rybnoy produktsii [The current status and development features of the fish and fish products market]. Tekhnologii pischevoy i pererabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti APK – produkty zdorovogo pitaniya. (1). 122-130. (in Russian).
Neuymin D.S. (2017). Sovremennoe sostoyanie i osobennosti razvitiya rynka ryby i rybnoy produktsii [The current status and development features of the fish and fish products market]. Tekhnologii pischevoy i pererabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti APK – produkty zdorovogo pitaniya. (1). 122-130. (in Russian).
Nikiforova A.P., Nikiforova O.P., Antokhonova I.V. (2017). Otsenka tendentsiy potrebleniya rybnyh produktov zhitelyami Respubliki Buryatiya [Assessment of Trends in Fish Products Consumption by the Citizens of the Republic of Buryatia]. Economy of the region. 13 (3). 948-958. (in Russian). doi: 10.17059/2017-3-25.
Pastushkova E.V., Chugunova O.V. (2017). Importozameschenie i ego rol v obespechenii prodovolstvennoy bezopasnosti i razvitii APK regiona [Food security and agricultural development in the region]. Proceedings of the Voronezh State University of Engineering Technologies. 79 (3(73)). 277-285. (in Russian).
Pinho M.G.M., Mackenbach J.D., Charreire H., Oppert J.-M., Bárdos H., Glonti K., Rutter H., Compernolle S., Bourdeaudhuij I.De, Beulens J.W.J., Brug J., Lakerve J.ld (2017). Exploring the relationship between perceived barriers to healthy eating and dietary behaviours in European adults European Journal of Nutrition. 1-10. doi: 10.1007/s00394-017-1458-3.
Popadynets N., Shults S., Barna M. (2017). Differences in consumer buying behaviour in consumer markets of the EU member states and Ukraine(Article) Economic Annals-XXI. 166 (7-8). 26-30.
Popova S.A. (2015). Analiz tsenoobrazovaniya na konkurentnom rynke rybnoy produktsii v rybokhozyaystvennom komplekse kamchatskogo kraya [Pricing analysis of in a competitive market of fish production in the fishery complex of Kamchatka region]. Vestnik kamchatskogo gosudarstvennogo tekhnicheskogo universiteta. (34). 114-122. (in Russian). doi: 10.17217/2079-0333-2015-34-114-123 .
Ragozin N.N. (2015). Problemy rybokhozyaystvennogo kompleksa Rossii [Problems of the Russian Fishing Industry]. Bulletin of Far East State Technical Fisheries University FESTFU (VESTNIK DAL\'RYBVTUZA). (6). 26-29. (in Russian).
Romanova L.V. (2015). Analiz faktorov, opredelyayuschikh konechnuyu stoimost ryby v Tsentralnom federalnom okruge Rossii [Analysis of the factors determining the final cost of fish in the Central Federal District of Russia]. Vestnik APK Stavropolya. (1(17)). 352-355. (in Russian).
Romanova L.V. (2016). Osobennosti formirovaniya sprosa na rybnuyu produktsiyu v otdelnyh regionakh Tsentralnogo federalnogo okruga [Features of the formation of demand for fish products in certain regions of the central federal district]. Fundamental research. (2-1). 197-201. (in Russian).
Romanova L.V. (2016). Otsenka regionalnogo rynka rybnoy produktsii [Assessment of the regional market of fish products]. Vestnik ryazanskogo gosudarstvennogo agrotekhnologicheskogo universiteta im. p.a. kostycheva. (3(31)). 92-98. (in Russian).
Sinyakov S.A. (2015). Pokazateli i tendentsii rossiyskogo rybnogo rynka [Indices and trends on Russian fishery market]. Rybnoe khozyaystvo. (6). 22-29. (in Russian).
Skara T., Axelsson L., Stefansson G., Ekstrand B., Hagen H. (2015). Fermented and ripened fish products in the northern European countries Journal of Ethnic Foods. (2). 18-24. doi: 10.1016/j.jef.2015.02.004.
Skuland S.E. (2015). Healthy eating and barriers related to social class. The case of vegetable and fish consumption in Norway Appetite. (92). 217-226. doi: 10.1016/j.appet.2015.05.008.
The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. Contributing to food security and nutrition for alWorld fisheries and aquaculture production and utilization. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5555e.pdf
Vasilev A.M. (2016). Importozameschenie v rybnoy otrasli [Import substitution in the fisheries]. Natsionalnye interesy. (8(341)). 100-110. (in Russian).
Vasileva L.M. (2015). Problemy i perspektivy razvitiya akvakultury v Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Problems and prospects of development of aquaculture in the Russian Federation]. Tekhnologii pischevoy i pererabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti APK – produkty zdorovogo pitaniya. (1). 18-23. (in Russian).
Vasileva L.M., Abrosimova N.A., Abrosimov S.S. (2016). Rol tovarnogo rybovodstva v formirovanii prodovolstvennogo resursa Yuzhnogo federalnogo okruga [The role of commercial fisheries in the formation of the food resource of the Southern Federal District]. Tekhnologii pischevoy i pererabatyvayuschey promyshlennosti APK – produkty zdorovogo pitaniya. (3). 38-43. (in Russian).
Сведения об улове рыбы добыче других водных биоресурсов и производстве рыбной и иной продукции из них, производстве продукции товарной аквакультуры (товарного рыбоводства)Gov.ru. (in Russian). Retrieved from http://fish.gov.ru/files/documents/otraslevaya_deyatelnost/ekonomika_otrasli/statistika_analitika/f407-0_01-12_2016.pdf
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