Modeling the current trend and predicting changes in indicators of occupational accidents
Grafkina M.V.1, Klindukh M.A.1, Sviridova E.Yu.1
1 Московский политехнический университет, Москва, Россия
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Journal paper
Russian Journal of Labour Economics (РИНЦ, ВАК)
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Volume 5, Number 1 (January-March 2018)
Indexed in Russian Science Citation Index: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=32759255
Cited: 11 by 07.12.2023
Abstract:
In order to implement effective activities for reducing the number of industrial accidents we need to study in detail and analyze the circumstances of each case, working conditions, organization of labor protection at enterprises and the investigation procedure. The article presents the results of modeling of the existing trend and forecasting changes in indicators of occupational accidents. Based on the selected optimal trend lines, the authors model the changes in injury rates for the past period and predict the expected indicators of occupational accidents.
We show the results of the analysis of the dynamics of changes in occupational accidents in Primorsky Krai, as well as data on the ratio of accidents that have been recorded as accidents involving production to accidents unrelated to production. We reveal five most traumatic industries in Primorsky Krai.
Processing of statistical data, modeling and forecasting of occupational accidents affects the choice of optimal solutions and will increase the efficiency of actions aimed at preventing injuries.
Keywords: modeling, forecasting, labor protection, trend line, occupational accident
JEL-classification: J81, J88, J83
References:
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Grafkina M.V., Safrina N.A. (2017). Analiz i profilaktika proizvodstvennyh neschastnyh sluchaev, proisshedshikh v rezultate dorozhno-transportnyh proisshestviy [Analysis and prevention of industrial accidents that occurred as a result of road accidents] Organization and safety of road traffic: Proceedings of the X International Scientific and Practical Conference dedicated to the 85th anniversary of the birth of Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor LG Reznik: in 2 volumes. 278−284. (in Russian).
Grafkina M.V., Sviridova E.Yu., Safrina N.A. (2017). Analiz proizvodstvennogo travmatizma v stroitelstve [Analysis of industrial injuries in construction]. Bulletin of BSTU named after V.G. Shukhov. (9). 80-87. (in Russian).
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