Patent analysis. Identification of promising and breakthrough technologies

Avdzeyko V.I.¹, Karnyshev V.I.¹, Mescheryakov R.V.¹
¹ Томский государственный университет систем управления и радиоэлектроники, Russia

Download PDF | Downloads: 45 | Citations: 7

Journal paper

Russian Journal of Innovation Economics ^{(РИНЦ, ВАК)}
опубликовать статью | оформить подписку

Volume 8, Number 1 (January-March 2018)

Citation:

Indexed in Russian Science Citation Index: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=32809297
Cited: 7 by 07.12.2023

Abstract:
Based on the analysis of numerous publications, the paper proposes the classification of forecasting methods, among which the authors preferred patent analysis. The essence of use of this method consists of creation of patents database in the investigated area of knowledge and construction on the Basis of the international patent classification (IPC) of time series on the main groups and subgroups of IPC. According to the dynamics of changes in the number of patents issued in the analyzed topics, it is proposed to identify promising and breakthrough technologies for the development of specific technological areas. Considering that patenting is ahead of realization of technical solutions in production, the conclusion about emergence in the next years of new products on the revealed breakthrough and perspective technologies is formed.

Keywords: methods, forecasting, technologies, time series, patent analysis, breakthrough technologies, International patent classification

JEL-classification: O31, O34, O32

References:

Avdzeyko V.I., Karnyshev V.I., Mescheryakov R.V. (2016). Prognozirovanie napravleniy razvitiya silovoy elektroniki na osnove vremennyh ryadov po dannym Mezhdunarodnoy patentnoy klassifikatsii [Forecasting of directions of development of power electronics on the basis of time series according to the International patent classification]. Elektrotekhnicheskie i informatsionnye kompleksy i sistemy. 12 (2). 23-28. (in Russian).
Avdzeyko V.I., Karnyshev V.I., Mescheryakov R.V., Parnyuk L.V. (2015). Prognozirovanie: formirovanie spetsializirovannyh baz dannyh i postroenie vremennyh ryadov patentov [Forecasting: creation of technical data base and time series of patents]. Doklady tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta sistem upravleniya i radioelektroniki. (4(38)). 183-188. (in Russian).
Avdzeyko V.I., Karnyshev V.I., Mescheryakov R.V., Parnyuk L.V. (2017). Prognozirovanie tendentsiy razvitiya i vyyavlenie perspektivnyh tekhnologiy v oblasti preobrazovatelnoy tekhniki [Forecasting of development trends and spotting breakthrough technologies in the field of converter equipment]. Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnyh zavedeniy. Elektromekhanika. 60 (2). 51-56. (in Russian). doi: 10.17213/0136-3360-2017-1-51-56.
Bengisu M., Nekhili R. (2006). Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases Technological Forecasting & Social Change. (73). 835-844.
Campbell R.S. (1983). Patent trends as a technological forecasting tool World Patent Information. 5 137-143.
Chen J.L., Liu S.J., Tseng C.H. (2000). Technological innovation and strategy adaptation in the product life cycle Technology Management: Strategies and Application. 5 (3). 183-202.
Dar-Zen Chen, Chang-Pin Lin, Mu-Hsuan Huang, Yi-Tung Chan (2012). Technology forecasting VIA published patent applications and patent grants Journal of Marine Science and Technology. 20 (4). 345-356.
Fattori M., Pedrazzi G., Turra R. (2003). Text mining applied to patent mapping: a practical business case World Patent Information. (25). 335-342.
Hingley P., Nicolas M. (2004). Methods for forecasting numbers of patent applications at the European Patent Office World Patent Information. 26 191-204.
Hirschey M., Richardson V.J. (2004). Are scientific indicators of patent quality useful to investors? J. Empir. Finance. 11 (1). 91-107.
Jun S. (2011). IPC code Analysis of Patent Documents Using Association Rules and Maps-Patent Analysis of Database Technology Communications in Computer and Information Science. (258). 21-30.
Levary R.R., Han D. (1995). Choosing a technological forecasting method Industrial Management. 37 14-18.
Liu S.J., Shyu J. (1997). Strategic planning for technology development with patent analysis International Journal of Technology Management. 13 (5-6). 661-680.
Martino J.P. (1980). Technology forecasting: an overview Management Science. 26 (1). 28-33.
Martino J.P. (2003). A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 70 719-733.
Mogee M.E. (1991). Using patent data for technology analysis and planning Research Technology Management. 34 43-49.
Mogee M.E., Kolar R.G. (1994). Kolar, International patent analysis as a tool for corporate technology analysis and planning Technol. Anal. Strat. Manag. 6 (4). 485-503.
Narin F., Noma E. (1987). Patents as indicators of corporate technological strength Res. Policy. 16 (2/4). 143-155.
Palmer P.J., Williams D.J., Hughes C. (1999). Observations and models of technology trends within the electronics industry Engineering Science and Education Journal. 8 233-240.
Porter A.L. (1999). Tech forecasting an empirical perspective Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 62 19-28.
Tong X., Frame J. (1994). Measuring national technological performance with patent claims data Res. Policy. 23 (2). 133-141.
Tseng Y.H., Lin C.J., Line Y.I. (2007). Textmining techniques for patent analysis Information Processing & Management. 43 (5). 1216-1247.
Yoon B., Park Y. (2004). A systematic approach for identifying technology opportunities: keyword-based morphology analysis Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change. 74 (2). 145-160.
Yoon B., Park Y. (2004). A text-mining-based patent network: analytical tool for high-technology trend J. High Technol. Managem. 15 (1). 37-50.
Yoon B., Yoon C., Park Y. (2002). On the development and application of a self-organizing feature map-based patent map R&D Manage. 32 (4). 291-300.

Страница обновлена: 09.05.2025 в 08:44:15

Подробнее об авторах: