Global trends in food policy and their impact on demographic development
Vartanova M.L.1
1 Институт социально-политических исследований Российской академии наук (ИСПИ РАН)
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Journal paper
Journal of International Economic Affairs (РИНЦ, ВАК)
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Volume 9, Number 4 (October-December 2019)
Indexed in Russian Science Citation Index: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=42446301
Cited: 7 by 07.12.2023
Abstract:
Despite the fact that in most sectors of agriculture, Russia is only at the beginning of the path to the development of foreign markets, the agricultural industry largely depends on foreign economic factors. It has long been a common belief that the demand for food is steadily increasing and is immune from crises, because the world's population consumers interests are constantly increasing, and they are new consumers of food. However, in terms of the global distribution of the growth in the number of people there are already strong changes. The rate of demographic growth of the world population began to slow down: if in 2000-2019 it increased by 1.2% per year, in the next 20 years, according to the World Bank data, the rate may fall to 0.8%. It is also important that population growth changes geography. In ten years, there will be 765 million new consumers in the world, of which 340 million will live in Africa, 126 million in India and only 30 million in China.
The fact is that at present, Russian agriculture sells only 10% of its products to the foreign market, but despite the small involvement in trade, global risks increasingly affect what is happening in the country's agro-industrial complex. However, on the medium-term and strategic horizon, global demand and competition are changing dramatically. The author of the article points out what Russian agricultural producers should remember and keep in mind when building business development strategies.
Keywords: consumers, competition, agriculture, labour, risks, agricultural products, food security, population, food, prices, global trends, demographics, Genetic engineering, genetically modified crops (GMOs)
JEL-classification: Q18, F52, J11
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