Demographic challenges and their consequences for Russia
Lyubelskiy N.M.1
, Musin E.R.1
1 Федеральное государственное бюджетное учреждение «Всероссийский научно-исследовательский институт труда» Министерства труда и социальной защиты Российской Федерации
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Creative Economy (РИНЦ, ВАК)
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Volume 18, Number 11 (November 2024)
Indexed in Russian Science Citation Index: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=75089881
Abstract:
Unfavorable demographic changes are one of the key problems hindering Russia's further socio-economic development. The current declining birth rate and relatively high mortality rate are exacerbating demographic problems such as depopulation and population aging. In order to adapt to current and future demographic realities, it is important to clearly understand not only the sources of Russia's demographic challenges but also their macroeconomic consequences. The results obtained in the article suggest that Russia has a very unfavorable demographic situation: the decline in the birth rate has not been halted, and due to the entrenched structure of causes of mortality, including excessive consumption of alcohol and tobacco products, life expectancy in Russia has been stagnating for a long time and is currently much lower than in countries with a similar socio-economic situation. Accelerating depopulation and aging of the population negatively affects the labor market, hinders business and innovative initiatives, and may also lead to the limitation of fiscal and monetary ways of influencing the economy. The authors conclude that the most promising areas of demographic policy are support for reconciling work and family responsibilities and prevention of health risk factors such as smoking and alcohol.
Keywords: birth rate decrease, high mortality rate, demographic aging, depopulation, fiscal and macroeconomic consequences
JEL-classification: J10, J11, J13, J19
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