This article examines relations between Russia and Turkey over the past 105 years and analyzes the development of economic relations between the two countries over the past quarter century. Typical risks in relations between modern states and their nature are formulated. A qualitative assessment of the top 10 risks in relations between Russia and Turkey is presented. A hierarchical structure of risks and a risk profile (risk assessment matrix) for these relations are presented. The capacity of acceptable risks in relations between the two countries as of 2026 is substantiated. The conditions, opportunities, and interests for the further development of relations between the two countries are reflected. It is proposed, firstly, to establish a Situation Center for Monitoring Risks in Relations with Border Countries within the Russian Government, which would unite the efforts of all existing Russian institutions studying specific aspects of relations with strategically important countries (Turkey, etc.); secondly, to transition to mutual preferential economic relations, both among EAEU member countries, including the abolition of import duties.