The purpose of the work is to clarify the specifics of regional financing of child benefits as a factor in the development of the regionrsquo;s economy, including agriculture. The event tree (ET) was chosen as the main method of substantiating the impact of this measure on the development of the agro-industrial complex of the region. The latter was built by the authors themselves. The main parameters of such a tree are the conditional probabilities of the occurrence of intermediate and final events, as well as the coefficients of money transformation from one event to another. Specifying these parameters should eventually help answer the question of the final increase in tax revenues to regional budgets for each ruble of child benefit Financing. When forming ET for financing child benefits from the regional budget, it is necessary to clarify and detail long-term scenarios that provide for a positive multiplier effect. The capabilities of AI are not yet sufficient for the formation of full-fledged ET, which makes human participation relevant, but introduces an element of subjectivity and stochasticity. When achieving the main goals of food security, stimulating the birth rate, including at the expense of regional budgets, should be considered the next logical and interrelated stage of the strategy for the development of the domestic agro-industrial complex, which consists in increasing the capacity of the domestic food market due to an increase in the birth rate. This makes it urgent to redirect funds from direct financial support for large-scale agricultural producers to stimulating the growth of the domestic market for agricultural products through financing fertility incentives, including from regional budgets.