Journal of Central Asia Economy Journal of Central Asia Economy Экономика Центральной Азии 2542-0607 BIBLIO-GLOBUS Publishing House 124913 10.18334/asia.10.1.124913 TKDJWY Articles Статьи Research Article Mobile Connectivity Infrastructure as a Structural Driver of Digital Financial Inclusion: Evidence from Central Asia Mobile Connectivity Infrastructure as a Structural Driver of Digital Financial Inclusion: Evidence from Central Asia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9264-14193346-9084G-1010-2018 Aseinov Dastan Ermekovich Асеинов Дастан Эрмекович

И.о. доцента кафедры экономики, PhD, и.о. доцента

 ivanov_2014@mail.ru Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University Кыргызско-Турецкий университет “Манас” 31 03 2026 10 1 VOL 10, NO1 (2026) ТОМ 10, №1 (2026) 29 50 20 02 2026 22 03 2026 Copyright ©; 2026, Aseinov D.E. Copyright ©; 2026, Асеинов Д.Э. 2026 Aseinov D.E. Асеинов Д.Э. https://1economic.ru/lib/124913

Digital financial services are widely promoted as a mechanism for expanding financial inclusion in emerging economies, yet adoption remains uneven across countries and population groups. This paper examines whether structural digital ecosystem capacity, Mobile Connectivity Infrastructure, constitutes a foundational driver of digital financial inclusion. Using microdata from the Global Findex 2025 combined with five-year averages of the Mobile Connectivity Index, we analyze six dimensions of digital financial inclusion across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Fractional logit estimates reveal that digital readiness is positively and significantly associated with overall inclusion as well as digital access, transaction intensity, account management, and borrowing/saving activities. The infrastructure component of digital readiness exhibits the strongest marginal effects, suggesting that connectivity remains a binding constraint in the region. Education and workforce participation amplify infrastructure gains, while digital borrowing functions respond less strongly than payment-based services. The findings support a layered ecosystem interpretation of digital finance development, in which infrastructure enables access but deeper financial engagement depends on complementary human capital and institutional factors. The results have important implications for digital inclusion policy in emerging markets.

Цифровые финансовые услуги рассматриваются как ключевой инструмент расширения финансовой инклюзии в странах с формирующимися рынками, однако их распространение остается неравномерным. В статье анализируется, является ли инфраструктура мобильной связи структурным фактором цифровой финансовой инклюзии. На основе микроданных Global Findex 2025 и пятилетних средних значений Индекса мобильной связности исследуются шесть измерений цифровой финансовой инклюзии в Казахстане, Кыргызстане, Таджикистане и Узбекистане. Оценки фракционной логит-модели показывают положительную и статистически значимую связь цифровой готовности с общим уровнем инклюзии, цифровым доступом, транзакционной активностью, управлением счетами и операциями заимствования и сбережений. Наибольшие предельные эффекты выявлены для инфраструктурного компонента, что указывает на сохраняющиеся ограничения связности. Образование и участие в рабочей силе усиливают влияние инфраструктуры, тогда как цифровое кредитование реагирует слабее по сравнению с платежными сервисами. Результаты подтверждают экосистемный характер цифровой финансовой инклюзии и подчеркивают необходимость комплексной политики, сочетающей развитие инфраструктуры, человеческого капитала и институциональных условий.

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