Creative Economy Creative Economy Креативная экономика 1994-6929 2409-4684 BIBLIO-GLOBUS Publishing House 122462 10.18334/ce.19.1.122462 IWDMZD Articles Статьи Research Article A study of the sustainability of the economic convergence of regions within the framework of the convergence club Исследование стабильности экономической конвергенции регионов в рамках «клуба конвергенции» Dmitriev Sergey Gennadyevich Дмитриев Сергей Геннадьевич

Научный сотрудник, кандидат экономических наук

 sergey.g.dmitrieff@gmail.com Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Российский экономический университет имени Г.В. Плеханова 31 01 2025 19 1 VOL 19, NO1 (2025) ТОМ 19, №1 (2025) 111 132 13 01 2025 Copyright ©; 2025, Dmitriev S.G. Copyright ©; 2025, Дмитриев С.Г. 2025 Dmitriev S.G. Дмитриев С.Г. https://1economic.ru/lib/122462

The study is aimed at identifying divergent processes of economic development of Russian regions by analyzing the sustainability of convergence. For this, it is necessary to conduct an exploratory data analysis on the amount of cash income of the population of regions included in the same convergence club, establish the presence of beta and sigma convergences between the named regions, and determine whether there is convergence in the development trajectories of this indicator between the four regions that have the closest indicators. The authors found out that among the regions belonging to one of the previously identified convergence clubs there is a convergence of trajectories of dynamics of monetary income of the population during the analyzed period. Despite the absence of statistically significant values of indicators characterizing beta-convergent processes, as well as the absence of sigma-convergence, the conducted statistical tests confirm the hypothesis about the existence of beta-convergence of monetary incomes of the regional population of one of the convergence clubs in 2015-2021. The results obtained prove the applicability of the methodology the authors use for diagnosing convergent and divergent processes in the economic development of Russian regions, as well as identifying convergence clubs and divergent groups of Russian regions.

Исследование направлено на выявление дивергентных процессов экономического развития регионов России посредством анализа устойчивости конвергенции. Для этого необходимо провести разведочный анализ данных о величине денежного дохода населения регионов, входящих в один и тот же клуб конвергенции; установить наличие бета- и сигма-конвергенций между названными регионами; определить наличие сходимости траекторий развития названного показателя между четырьмя регионами, обладающими наиболее близкими значениями. Нами установлено, что среди регионов, входящих в один из ранее определенных нами клубов конвергенции, наблюдается сходимость траекторий динамики денежного дохода населения в течение анализируемого периода времени. Несмотря на отсутствие статистически значимых значений показателей, характеризующих бета-конвергентные процессы, а также отсутствие сигма-конвергенции, проведенные нами статистические тесты подтверждают нашу гипотезу о существовании бета-конвергенции денежных доходов населения регионов одного из клубов конвергенции в 2015-2021 годах. Полученные нами результаты доказывают применимость используемой нами методологии диагностирования конвергентных и дивергентных процессов в экономическом развитии регионов России, а также выявления клубов конвергенции и дивергентных групп регионов России

 beta convergence sigma convergence divergence cash income regional development бета-конвергенция сигма-конвергенция дивергенция денежный доход региональное развитие 1. Baumol W.J. Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show. Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare // The American Economic Review. – 1986. – № 5. – p. 1072-1085. 2. Islam N. What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate // Journal of Economic Surveys. – 2003. – № 3. – p. 309-362. 3. Magrini S. Chapter 62 - Regional (DI)Convergence // Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics: Cities and Geography. – 2004. – p. 2741-2796. 4. Martin R., Sunley P. Slow Convergence? The New Endogenous Growth Theory and Regional Development. Slow Convergence? // Economic Geography. – 1998. – № 3. – p. 201-227. 5. Petrakos G., Kallioras D., Anagnostou A. Regional convergence and growth in Europe: understanding patterns and determinants. Regional convergence and growth in Europe // European Urban and Regional Studies. – 2011. – № 4. – p. 375-391. 6. Kremer M., Willis J., You Y. Converging to Convergence // NBER Macroeconomics Annual. – 2022. – p. 337-412. 7. Cleveland M., Papadopoulos N., Laroche M. Global consumer culture and national identity as drivers of materialism: an international study of convergence and divergence. Global consumer culture and national identity as drivers of materialism // International Marketing Review. – 2021. – № 2. – p. 207-241. 8. Vollero A., Yin J., Siano A. Convergence or divergence? A comparative analysis of CSR communication by leading firms in Asia, Europe, and North America. Convergence or divergence? // Public Relations Review. – 2022. – № 1. – p. 102142. 9. Bisin A., Rubin J., Seror A., Verdier T. Culture, institutions and the long divergence // Journal of Economic Growth. – 2024. – № 1. – p. 1-40. 10. Győrffy D. The middle-income trap in Central and Eastern Europe in the 2010s: institutions and divergent growth models. The middle-income trap in Central and Eastern Europe in the 2010s // Comparative European Politics. – 2022. – № 1. – p. 90-113. 11. Alexiadis S. Regional Convergence: Theory and Empirics // Regional Science Inquiry. Regional Convergence. – 2020. – № 1. – p. 245-252. 12. Rey S.J., Ye X., Páez A., Gallo J., Buliung R.N., Dall’erba S. Comparative Spatial Dynamics of Regional Systems. / Progress in Spatial Analysis : Advances in Spatial Science. - Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. – 441-463 p. 13. Barro R.J., Sala-I-Martin X., Blanchard O.J., Hall R.E. Convergence Across States and Regions // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. – 1991. – № 1. – p. 107-182. 14. Rey S.J., Montouri B.D. US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective // Regional Studies. US Regional Income Convergence. – 1999. – № 2. – p. 143-156. 15. Totev S. Regional convergence theories – conformity with the EU development // Trakia Journal of Sciences. – 2020. – № 1. – p. 437-441. 16. Mendez C., Santos-Marquez F. Regional convergence and spatial dependence across subnational regions of ASEAN: Evidence from satellite nighttime light data. Regional convergence and spatial dependence across subnational regions of ASEAN // Regional Science Policy Practice. – 2021. – № 6. – p. 1750-1777. 17. Adhikari B., Dhital S. Decentralization and regional convergence: Evidence from night-time lights data // Economic Inquiry. Decentralization and regional convergence. – 2021. – № 3. – p. 1066-1088. 18. Дубовик М.В., Дмитриев С.Г. Дивергенция денежных доходов населения регионов России // Креативная экономика. – 2024. – № 3. – c. 697-724. 19. Неравенство и бедность. [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/13723 (дата обращения: 06.01.2025). 20. Burnett J.W. Club convergence and clustering of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions // Resource and Energy Economics. – 2016. – p. 62-84. 21. Du K. Econometric Convergence Test and Club Clustering Using Stata // The Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata. – 2017. – № 4. – p. 882-900. 22. Von Lyncker K., Thoennessen R. Regional club convergence in the EU: evidence from a panel data analysis. Regional club convergence in the EU // Empirical Economics. – 2017. – № 2. – p. 525-553. 23. Sichera R., Pizzuto P. ConvergenceClubs: A Package for Performing the Phillips and Sul’s Club Convergence Clustering Procedure. ConvergenceClubs // The R journal. – 2019. – № 2. – p. 142-151. 24. Chatterji M. Convergence clubs and endogenous growth // Oxford Review of Economic Policy. – 1992. – № 4. – p. 57-69. 25. Ben-David D. Convergence Clubs and Diverging Economies. Publisher: C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. — C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, 1994. [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://ideas.repec.org//p/cpr/ceprdp/922.html (дата обращения: 13.01.2025). 26. Carluer F. Dynamics of Russian regional clubs: The time of divergence // Regional Studies. – 2005. – № 6. – p. 713-726. 27. Aginta H., Gunawan A.B., Mendez C. Regional income disparities and convergence clubs in Indonesia: new district-level evidence. Regional income disparities and convergence clubs in Indonesia // Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. – 2023. – № 1. – p. 101-132. 28. Abramovitz M. Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind // The Journal of Economic History. – 1986. – № 2. – p. 385-406. 29. Anscombe F.J. Graphs in Statistical Analysis // The American Statistician. – 1973. – № 1. – p. 17-21. 30. Tukey’s method. [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/prc/section4/prc471.htm (дата обращения: 11.01.2025). 31. Chi-squared test. Wikipedia. [Электронный ресурс]. URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Chi-squared_testoldid=1214715020 (дата обращения: 13.01.2025). 32. Kruskal W.H., Wallis W.A. Use of Ranks in One-Criterion Variance Analysis // Journal of the American Statistical Association. – 1952. – № 260. – p. 583-621.